Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, October 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, October 22

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, October 18	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, October 19	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, October 20	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, October 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, October 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150818 SPC AC 150818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough, which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week, which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the Great Plains.

Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday

A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too weak to support a severe weather threat.

### Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday

While particular details regarding location and intensity of the midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies, where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to the east of a surface lee trough.

..Mead.. 10/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, October 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 15%
Saturday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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