Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys into the Mid-South through this evening, with a threat for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF-3+), widespread severe/damaging wind gusts, and scattered large to very large hail.

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Outlook for Monday, May 4

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, April 30	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, May 1	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, May 2	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, May 3	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, May 4	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270843 SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States.

It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, April 27: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 45%
Tuesday, April 28: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, April 29: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, April 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, May 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, May 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, May 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, May 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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