Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, June 20	15%
Day 6	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160753 SPC AC 160753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Fri - Carolinas

A very moist airmass will be in place across the Carolinas vicinity on Friday. Medium range guidance varies in the evolution of a surface front across the region. However, widespread convection is likely to be ongoing Friday morning somewhere across the Southeast. This will likely temper downstream destabilization and severe potential is uncertain.

Day 5/Sat - Central Plains

Upper ridging over the Plains will break down on Saturday as an upper shortwave impulse ejects from the central Rockies toward the Mid-MO Valley. At the same time, lee surface low development over the central High Plains will strengthen south/southeasterly low-level flow and rich Gulf moisture will quickly stream northward across portions of KS/NE. Moderate to strong destabilization amid strengthening west/northwesterly flow aloft will support severe thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.

Days 6-8/Sun-Tue

Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the forecast period. However, the general consensus is for weakening flow aloft and upper ridging building across the western U.S. Overall, predictability is low for early next week.

..Leitman.. 06/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 16: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, June 17: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 20: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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