Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, June 14	15%
Day 5	Monday, June 15	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, June 18	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 11: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 45%
Friday, June 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, June 13: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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