Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, June 12	15%
Day 5	Saturday, June 13	15%
Day 6	Sunday, June 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, June 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable.

Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM.

### Day 5/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes.

Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas.

### Day 6/Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted.

### Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday

Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 9: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 45%
Wednesday, June 10: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, June 11: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Friday, June 12: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, June 13: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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