Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Mon-Tue

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.

Day 8/Fri

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, June 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, June 13: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, June 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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