Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 17	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Monday, June 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Thursday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.