Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, June 13	15%
Day 5	Sunday, June 14	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100826 SPC AC 100826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent, mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper Great Lakes.

A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.

### Day 5/Sunday

A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west, the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary stalling across the southern Plains.

The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast. Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the coverage and duration of any threat.

Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains, where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.

### Day 6/Monday

The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to include an area.

### Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather are possible during this time frame, predictability in their location is low.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 10: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, June 11: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 45%
Friday, June 12: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, June 13: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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