An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected today, with primary threat centered over Illinois and Indiana. Several intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging wind-driven hail will all be possible.

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, June 20	15%
Day 5	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170721 SPC AC 170721

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday - Central Plains

A mid/upper trough ejecting across the central Rockies into the Plains will break down the upper ridge centered over the Plains on Saturday. This will result in some enhancement of mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow. Surface lee troughing will extend from eastern WY through eastern CO, and increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward into NE and far southwest SD. Increasing boundary layer moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization by late afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21-00z and migrate southeast, posing a severe risk across portions of the central Plains.

Day 5/Sunday - OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley

Medium range guidance varies considerably regarding evolution of a modest midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface low and cold front on Sunday. It is possible that an MCS related to Day 4/Saturday convection could be ongoing Sunday morning somewhere near the Mid-MO Valley. Depending on how surface feature evolve, a severe risk could develop across parts of eastern OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley given a seasonally moist/unstable airmass and at least some enhancement of deep-layer flow from the mid/upper shortwave trough. However, placement of the surface low Sunday morning varies by a few hundred miles between the ECMWF and GFS deterministic members. The AIGFS is more similar to the ECMWF, but details remain quite different. This precludes a 15 percent delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed at some point somewhere from OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South regions.

Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday

A more June-like pattern appears to evolve through mid-week with weaker deep-layer flow expected amid weak troughing in the East and upper ridging across the West. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across the Plains as low-level moisture spreads northward beneath modest northwesterly flow aloft. However, predictability is low given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent. Daily thunderstorm chances will be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer time scale.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 17: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, June 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, June 20: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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