Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast

Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 18: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, June 20: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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