Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.

By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.

Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.

..Bentley.. 06/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, June 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, June 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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