Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200830 SPC AC 200830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, June 21: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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