Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, June 27	15%
Day 6	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, June 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

D5/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.

D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity

On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.

D7/Monday - Upper Midwest

As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 06/23/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 23: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, June 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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