Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, June 27	15%
Day 5	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.

Day 5 and Beyond

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 24: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, June 25: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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