Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, June 28	15%
Day 5	Monday, June 29	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250809 SPC AC 250809

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Sun - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to round the base of the western CONUS trough on Sunday and emerge across the northern Plains. As this occurs, the lee cyclone across eastern Colorado will deepen further and move northward into the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Continued northward moisture transport will result in strong to very strong instability ahead of the surface low across the northern Plains. Forecast soundings show a very favorable environment and an uncapped airmass by evening. Forecast specifics remain nebulous as individual shortwave troughs will impact the timing and coverage of storms, but severe storms are possible at some point Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across eastern North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota.

D5/Mon - Upper Midwest

The primary shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak is forecast to shift northeastward across the northern Plains and toward the Upper Midwest on Monday. This will occur atop a very unstable airmass across a broad area of the Upper Midwest. Severe storms are possible, but the exact magnitude and extent of the threat will become more clear once individual shortwave troughs associated with this upper trough become better sampled.

Beyond Day 5, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain. Overall, a general pattern with a trough persisting over the Northwest or northern Rockies and a ridge over the Plains or Midwest seems most likely. However, the differences in amplitude and location of these features limit predictability. Within this broader pattern, severe weather will be most likely from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and also potentially on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge across the Northeast. At this time, predictability is too low to add any probability areas.

..Bentley.. 06/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 25: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Friday, June 26: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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