Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 29	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 3	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday. This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15% area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result, predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, June 26: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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