Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, July 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 27: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, June 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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