Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280846 SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 29: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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