Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, July 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, July 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, July 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, July 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.

The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.

Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.

..Marsh.. 07/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 14: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, July 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.