Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 12	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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