Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 17	15%
Day 7	Saturday, July 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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