Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.

As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, July 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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