Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.

Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, July 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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