Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 14	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 16	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 17	15%
Day 8	Saturday, July 18	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.

### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England

Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.

### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.

Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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