Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 18	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150859 SPC AC 150859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern will continue to transition toward a western US ridge and eastern Canada trough during this forecast period. The strongest mid-level flow across the US will be in the region between the ridge and trough, namely the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Ensemble guidance suites continue to indicate several stronger mid-level short-wave troughs moving through the longwave trough across eastern North America. In particular, one such trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday into Sunday, with a secondary wave moving across the same general area late Monday into early Wednesday. In between these main waves, smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima are likely to traverse the region.

Prior cyclones moving across the region will have left behind a surface boundary arcing from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. As each of the previously mentioned waves approaches this boundary, the surface boundary will lift northward before being pushed farther southward in the wake of the departing wave. By the end of the forecast period, this boundary may push as far south as the Southeast US.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with each passing wave, with more isolated potential in between the main waves in association with any of the small/subtle vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow. The best areas for thunderstorms look to be south of the better mid-level flow, which would tend to favor any severe potential being driven by the degree of low-level warming/steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At this time it appears that the timing of the midlevel waves may favor early day convection, especially across the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic area. This early day convection may temper afternoon heating and the overall organization/areal extent of any severe potential. Thus, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 15% severe weather probabilities at this time, despite the acknowledgment that some severe potential is likely during this time period.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, July 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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