Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 19	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SPC AC 160902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next week.

Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas during the afternoon.

Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally, a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A 15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4 to account for this potential.

The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However, the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away, will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with this forecast.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Friday, July 17: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, July 19: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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