Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 20	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 21	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 7	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 17: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, July 18: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, July 19: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 20: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, July 21: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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