Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 5	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

Days 5-8/Thu-Sun

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, July 21: ANY SEVERE: 45%
Wednesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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