Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, August 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, August 12	15%
Day 5	Thursday, August 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, August 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, August 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, August 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

From Wednesday to Friday, a broad mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place across the Great Lakes and the Northeast, as a ridge moves eastward from the northern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the central and northern Plains into the mid Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Low-level convergence near this front will be a focus for convective development each day.

On Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will most likely develop Wednesday afternoon along an axis of moderate instability from western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. The storms will be supported by a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the north-central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The models also suggest that a convective cluster will form within a very moist and unstable airmass in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon, where a wind-damage threat will be possible.

On Thursday, the most favored corridor for convective development is forecast from eastern Nebraska into central Illinois. However, the models suggest that scattered convective coverage could be concentrated overnight as low-level flow increases across the region. A severe threat could develop during the day but would remain relatively isolated due to a lack of storm coverage. An isolated severe threat could also develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains during the afternoon. However, storms there will also likely be isolated due to a shortwave ridge aloft.

On Friday, thunderstorm swill also be possible from the central Plains eastward into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. However, the most favored locations are likely to be determined by outflow boundaries associated with the previous day's convection. For this reason, uncertainty is substantial on Friday.

Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

Over the weekend, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as west-northwesterly flow remains in the Northeast. An axis of instability is forecast from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, which will be a focus for thunderstorm development. It appears that an isolated severe threat could develop along and near the instability axis each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is considerable concerning the details of any potential scenario.

..Broyles.. 08/09/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, August 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, August 10: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, August 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, August 12: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, August 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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