Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, October 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, October 23

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, October 19	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, October 20	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, October 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, October 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, October 23	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, October 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 30%
Saturday, October 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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