Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, October 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, October 24

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, October 20	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, October 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, October 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, October 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, October 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170747 SPC AC 170747

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However, given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears quite isolated and localized.

..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, October 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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