Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, October 26

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, October 26

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, October 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, October 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, October 24	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, October 25	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, October 26	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190830 SPC AC 190830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend. Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities were not introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, October 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, October 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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