Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 27

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Tuesday, October 27

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, October 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, October 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, October 25	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, October 26	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, October 27	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.

Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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