Severe Weather Outlook

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Severe Weather Watches Overview

Watch data currently updates every 15 minutes.

Current severe weather watch map

Tornado Watch #0645 for Western and Central New York, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario

A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0646 for Eastern Ohio, Western and Central Pennsylvania, The Far Northern West Virginia Panhandle

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

↑ back to the list of watches ↑

Tornado Watch #0645

Locations Affected

Western and Central New York

Lake Erie

Lake Ontario

Tornado Watch #0645 map

Tornado Watch Summary

Supercell thunderstorms should pose some threat for large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes as they move eastward late this afternoon and evening across parts of western and central NY. A strong tornado appears possible if thunderstorms can remain at least semi-discrete this evening. Thunderstorms will likely grow upscale into a bowing cluster later this evening, with a greater threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph.

Severe Weather Threats

A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Tornado Watch Details

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western and Central New York
  Lake Erie
  Lake Ontario

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM
  until 1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should pose some threat for large
hail and perhaps a few tornadoes as they move eastward late this
afternoon and evening across parts of western and central NY. A
strong tornado appears possible if thunderstorms can remain at least
semi-discrete this evening. Thunderstorms will likely grow upscale
into a bowing cluster later this evening, with a greater threat for
scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Watertown NY
to 60 miles east of Jamestown NY. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 643...WW 644...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.

...Gleason

↑ back to the list of watches ↑

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0646

Locations Affected

Eastern Ohio

Western and Central Pennsylvania

The Far Northern West Virginia Panhandle

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0646 map

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

Robust thunderstorms have developed across eastern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania in a favorable environment for severe hail and damaging winds. Current expectations are for this convection to spread generally east-southeastward through the late afternoon and into the evening. A tornado or two may also occur with any sustained supercell.

Severe Weather Threats

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

A tornado or two possible

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Details

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 646
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
455 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Ohio
  Western and Central Pennsylvania
  The Far Northern West Virginia Panhandle

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight
  EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Robust thunderstorms have developed across eastern Ohio
into northwest Pennsylvania in a favorable environment for severe
hail and damaging winds. Current expectations are for this
convection to spread generally east-southeastward through the late
afternoon and into the evening. A tornado or two may also occur with
any sustained supercell.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest
of Youngstown OH to 45 miles northeast of State College PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 643...WW 644...WW 645...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Gleason

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, September 2: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, September 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, September 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, September 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, September 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, September 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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