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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Severe Weather Outlook

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Severe Weather Watches Overview

Watch data currently updates every 15 minutes.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0220 for Eastern Illinois, Northern and Central Indiana, Southwest Michigan, Northwest Ohio, Lake Michigan
  • Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  • Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  • A tornado or two possible
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0221 for Lower Michigan, Lake Erie, Lake Huron, Lake Michigan
  • Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible
  • Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  • A tornado or two possible
PDS Tornado Watch #0222 for Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska
  • Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
  • Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely
  • Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
↑ back to the list of watches ↑

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0220

Locations Affected

  • Eastern Illinois
  • Northern and Central Indiana
  • Southwest Michigan
  • Northwest Ohio
  • Lake Michigan

    • Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

    A line of thunderstorms over central Illinois will track northeastward through the day across the watch area. Swaths of damaging winds are expected with the more intense line segments.

    Severe Weather Threats

  • Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  • Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  • A tornado or two possible

    • Severe Thunderstorm Watch Details

    SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Illinois
  Northern and Central Indiana
  Southwest Michigan
  Northwest Ohio
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1105 AM until
  600 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over central Illinois will track
northeastward through the day across the watch area.  Swaths of
damaging winds are expected with the more intense line segments.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Champaign IL to 55 miles east of Fort Wayne IN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.

...Hart
    ↑ back to the list of watches ↑

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0221

    Locations Affected

  • Lower Michigan
  • Lake Erie
  • Lake Huron
  • Lake Michigan

    • Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

    A band of thunderstorms over southern Lake Michigan will track northeastward across the watch, while other storms form over northern Lower Michigan. All of these storms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the afternoon.

    Severe Weather Threats

  • Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible
  • Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  • A tornado or two possible

    • Severe Thunderstorm Watch Details

    SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Lower Michigan
  Lake Erie
  Lake Huron
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until
  800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms over southern Lake Michigan will
track northeastward across the watch, while other storms form over
northern Lower Michigan.  All of these storms will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts and hail through the afternoon.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south of Jackson
MI to 40 miles northwest of Alpena MI. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.

...Hart
    ↑ back to the list of watches ↑

    PDS Tornado Watch #0222

    Locations Affected

  • Northeast Kansas
  • Southeast Nebraska

    • Tornado Watch Summary

    Rapid supercell development is expected over north-central Kansas. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon across the watch area, into far southeast Nebraska. Instability and shear parameters suggest the potential for intense tornadoes, along with very large hail and damaging winds.

    Severe Weather Threats

  • Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
  • Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely
  • Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

    • Tornado Watch Details

    SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Kansas
  Southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
  800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
  Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Rapid supercell development is expected over north-central
Kansas.  These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon
across the watch area, into far southeast Nebraska.  Instability and
shear parameters suggest the potential for intense tornadoes, along
with very large hail and damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Salina KS to 10
miles east southeast of Falls City NE. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220...WW 221...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.

...Hart

    National Risk Overview

    Monday, May 18
    TORNADO: 15%
    HAIL: 45%
    WIND: 30%
    Tuesday, May 19
    TORNADO: 2%
    HAIL: 15%
    WIND: 15%
    Wednesday, May 20
    ANY SEVERE: 5%
    Thursday, May 21
    ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
    Friday, May 22
    ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
    Saturday, May 23
    ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
    Sunday, May 24
    ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
    Monday, May 25
    ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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