Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 11	30%
Day 5	Friday, June 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080845 SPC AC 080845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.

Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night.

At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday.

A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary.

Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast.

Day 5/Friday

A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update.

Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

### Day 6/Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low.

### Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday

The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, June 8: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 9: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 45%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, June 10: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Thursday, June 11: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Friday, June 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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