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Outlook for Sunday, April 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, April 8	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, April 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, April 10	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, April 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, April 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050848 SPC AC 050848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5

From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening. Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe threat.

Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8

Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons, will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show better agreement.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, April 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Monday, April 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, April 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, April 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, April 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, April 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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