Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 5

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, May 1	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, May 2	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, May 3	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, May 4	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, May 5	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.

There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.

..Kerr.. 04/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 28: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, April 29: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, April 30: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, May 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, May 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, May 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, May 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, May 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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