Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, May 2	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, May 3	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, May 4	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, May 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, May 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290858 SPC AC 290858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range guidance, in particular the ECENS and GEFS, generally maintains forecast trends of prior runs concerning the evolution of the large-scale features within the prevailing split flow through this weekend into early next week. It appears that at least a transient blocking high may evolve within amplified ridging offshore of the British Columbia and adjacent Pacific Northwest coast. To its south-southeast a notable mid-level low is forecast to evolve within initial troughing slowly digging toward the U.S. Pacific coast, with the low bottoming out offshore of the central/ southern California coast by early next week.

Downstream, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will be maintained, with lowest heights perhaps reforming west-northwestward from southwestern Quebec toward southern Hudson Bay/northwestern Ontario, contributing to the maintenance of a confluent regime across and east of the Rockies.

Shorter wavelength developments within this pattern remain more uncertain, particularly by the early to middle portion of next week, when it appears that the offshore low will begin to progress inland across California and the southern Sierra Nevada. Depending on the timing of the inland progressing mid-level cold core with respect to diurnal heating, this could be accompanied by relatively minor severe weather potential across parts of the San Joaquin Valley next Monday or Tuesday.

Downstream, southerly moist return flow into at least the southern through central Great Plains, associated with deepening lee surface troughing, may contribute to destabilization beneath building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies. This might be accompanied by increasing potential for at least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday.

Guidance suggests potential for more widespread organized severe thunderstorm development could increase by Wednesday, but much will depend on short wave developments which become rather uncertain by this time.

..Kerr.. 04/29/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 29: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, April 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Friday, May 1: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, May 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, May 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, May 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, May 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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