Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Friday, May 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, May 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, May 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, May 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, May 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, May 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010734 SPC AC 010734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Southern Plains…Mid/Lower MS Valley…Southeast

An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon.

By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, May 1: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, May 2: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, May 3: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, May 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, May 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.