Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, May 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.

By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, May 7: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, May 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, May 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, May 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, May 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, May 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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