Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, May 11	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, May 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, May 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, May 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, May 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6

Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.

Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8

A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, May 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, May 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, May 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, May 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, May 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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