Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, May 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, May 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, May 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, May 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, May 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.

Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8

On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.

On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.

Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.

..Broyles.. 05/09/2026

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 9: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, May 10: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Monday, May 11: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, May 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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