Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 13	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, May 14	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 17	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100842 SPC AC 100842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat.

On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage.

The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment.

Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms.

..Broyles.. 05/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 10: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Monday, May 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, May 12: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, May 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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