Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, May 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 17	30%
Day 5	Monday, May 18	30%
Day 6	Tuesday, May 19	15%
Day 7	Wednesday, May 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON

### DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.

On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, May 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, May 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, May 16: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, May 17: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Monday, May 18: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Tuesday, May 19: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, May 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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