Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, May 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, May 16	15%
Day 6	Sunday, May 17	15%
Day 7	Monday, May 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, May 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, May 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, May 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, May 14: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, May 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 16: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, May 17: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, May 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, May 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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