Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, May 14	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, May 15	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, May 16	15%
Day 7	Sunday, May 17	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, May 18	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110818 SPC AC 110818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most.

On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats.

By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area.

On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, May 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, May 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, May 13: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, May 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 16: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, May 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, May 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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