Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, May 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, May 19	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, May 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, May 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, May 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, May 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.

D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.

D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 16: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, May 17: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Monday, May 18: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Tuesday, May 19: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, May 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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