Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, May 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 20	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, May 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday

On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.

D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 17: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Monday, May 18: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 45%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, May 19: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, May 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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