Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri.

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Outlook for Monday, May 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, May 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, May 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, May 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, May 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - D5/Friday

On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.

Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.

D6/Saturday-D8/Monday

Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.

..Thornton.. 05/18/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, May 18: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 45%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, May 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, May 20: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, May 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, May 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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