Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, May 22	15%
Day 5	Saturday, May 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, May 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, May 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Friday

Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms. Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A 15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in convection occurring.

D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday

Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.

..Thornton.. 05/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, May 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, May 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, May 21: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, May 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, May 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, May 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, May 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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